FTSE 100: 7859.17 ▲ 80.38 (1.03%)

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Comments  (13)

  • Tony Peterson: 

    Or, on the other hand, there may be an astonishing boom that will be remembered for millenia.

    The operative word is "may".

    18:18 on 11 February 2015

  • Keith Cobby: 

    Don't worry folks, the solution to Crispin's warning is very simple - pound/cost averaging. Buy monthly throughout the downturn - if it happens!

    18:54 on 11 February 2015

  • Law Man: 

    Interesting. We had severe falls in equities generally post 2000 and post 2007. Next time bonds could fall as well. The more cautious among us would like some 'insurance'. The article indicates (1) cash; (2) index linked gilts; and (3) a 'put option' on the FT100.

    The manager of Diverse Income IT said he paid a price of 1.6% of value for a put option exerciseable for 19 months (I think); but it covers only one-third of the assets. Is this the same as a price of 4.8% of assets for coverage of all assets? If so, this may be a high price to pay. Of course in February 2015 the price for 19 months cover may be greater. Note: I may be showing a woeful lack of understanding of the option.

    19:56 on 11 February 2015

  • Tony Peterson: 

    That's it Keith.

    After 40 years of growing my investment income year on year without fail, I get far more excited by downturns. Our dividend stream and realised gains can be used to buy back bargains as they arise.

    I define a bargain as a share which I can repurchase at a discount to the last profit-take I sliced off the holding.

    There are always bargains to be had, even in bull markets. I have a few lined up for tomorrow.

    20:12 on 11 February 2015

  • Tony Beedell via mobile

    I don't suppose that is the same Keith 'Action not analysis' Cobby of BHFS Chatham days?

    Apologies for intruding if not.

    21:04 on 11 February 2015

  • Stephen West: 

    When managers reach a certain age, some of them become susceptible to "Grumpy Old Man" syndrome - an inability to see all the positive endeavours hopes and aspirations of the younger generations, and a consequent viewing of the world through a too-gloomy prism. Mr Odey may have many legitimate concerns about global economic imbalances, but it is probable that his views will prove to be too pessimistic.

    10:29 on 12 February 2015

  • Maverick: 

    Er - having read Mr Odey's gloomy predictions, I would like to know why he has not cashed his entire fund . . . .

    11:43 on 12 February 2015

  • Michael Peters Fenwicks: 

    Opportunity knocks and yes its a buying freeze that will look forward too.

    09:31 on 14 February 2015

  • Stephen B.: 

    Share prices would only be "devastated" by some kind of catastrophe which would by definition be unpredictable in advance. In fact most of the comments here seem to be either "bonds are expensive" (certainly true but has been true for a couple of years) or "the general election makes things hard to predict" - also true but not necessarily any worse than all the other uncertainties.

    12:14 on 14 February 2015

  • Kenpen2: 

    Hedge fund manager desperately trying to sow seeds of panic as markets rise inexorably leaving his naked shorts ever more exposed ? Shurely not ...

    10:47 on 15 February 2015

  • Tony Peterson: 

    Hi, Kenpen 2, good to hear from you, and sense as usual.

    I too ponder on the motives of these experts crying doom. Mind you I am very grateful for their shorting strategies. Over the past couple of months I have quadrupled my holding of heavily shorted Sainsburys at very reasonable prices.

    11:57 on 15 February 2015

  • Kenpen2: 

    Hi Tony,

    and the same to you ! I'm still trying (mostly) to heed your good advice, have taken advantage of recent weakness to load up with dividend-paying oils, miners and supermarkets at what seem reasonable prices. Am also doing ok (touch wood) at the mo with financials and house-builders. Have so far failed to spot entry points for utilities and telecoms though there may well have been some.

    My main failing is still impatience - buying too soon on the way down and selling too soon on the way up. My overall performance has also been badly hurt by a string of "failures" (thus far, though they're not over till they're over) in the get-rich-quick end of the market, a lesson I'm being slow to learn but which only bears out the wisdom of everything you've said.

    Personally I dislike shorting in principle, but as you say the shorters do create opportunities for the rest of us if you can get your timing right.

    Re Sainsburys am interested to read today that they, like Tesco, are beginning to redevelop some of their sites for housing, eg at Nine Elms : "A big Sainsbury’s was knocked down and the grocer is now developing, with housebuilder Barratt, a new store and seven towers with a total of 737 homes." Whatever the other issues, it may indicate the depth of stored value in their property portfolio !

    One possibly naive question : how can one find out which shares are being shorted at any particular time ?

    12:45 on 16 February 2015

  • Tony Peterson: 


    The FCA is supposed to publish their notified short trades, although my constipated computer seems unable to access the data. It was well publicised that Sainsbury's was attracting record levels of short selling when Tesco's came out with all its bad news. My portfolio (free) with the FT identifies the amount of short selling with each of my holdings when interrogated.

    I guess that the day will come when selling shares you do not own will come to be seen with the same moral opprobrium as buggering orphans (a la Kincora) molesting underage girls (a la Saville), or taking and damaging cars you do not own (twoccing, I believe it is called) or rigging exchange rates, misselling insurance, beheading people whose religious views do not concur exactly with your own, or living a billionaire lifestyle without ever informing the taxman.......but that day has not come yet.

    I am old enough to remember the story of the old bull and the young bull in Eric Williams account of the Wooden Horse (of Stalag 3). It has served me very well. You must not be too impatient for short term advantage. I am pleased that you have taken what seem to me to be great opportunities with oils, miners, and supermarkets. For me, my utility shares are the bread and butter ones, and (it has depended on my last selling or buying prices)... for what it is worth here are my automatic buying and selling ranges for the utilities we own. We hold within the following ranges, add if they fall below, and slice off profits it they go above these holding ranges : CNA (2.60-3.10) NG (8.50-9.90) SSE (15.00-17.50) and UU (9.20 - 10.10). I have a different approach to my superstars. GSK, AZN and BT.

    Wishing you every success.

    20:04 on 16 February 2015

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